Tag Archive for "Earnings" tag

Our POV: How to estimate AT&T Prepaid Subscribers, ARPU, and Churn

March 10th, 2009 by david | 2 comments

As an analyst in the wireless industry, I was often asked to compare KPIs (Key Performance Indices - subscriber counts, ARPU, Churn, etc.) of various carriers.  Unfortunately, most carriers earnings reports do not provide breakout of KPIs for their prepaid and/or reseller (aka. MVNO) businesses.  Unless they are from a pure-play prepaid provider like Virgin Mobile (now less true with their acquisition of Helio) or Tracfone, prepaid KPIs are not easy to come.

In this article, I will share the method I use to estimate prepaid subscriber count, prepaid ARPU, and prepaid churn for AT&t using its latest 4Q 2008 earnings report.

First, you will have to be fairly familiar with AT&T’s Statement of Segment Income — GAAP for the Wireless segment [master.xls].  Under the tab, Wireless Segment, AT&T provides total Subscriber count, Net adds, Postpaid sub count, churn and its ARPU.  This is great especially AT&T is doing quite well in its postpaid business.  But if you want to get to Prepaid/Reseller ARPU and churn, you’ll have to do some math.   Let’s calculate AT&T’s Prepaid + Reseller :

  • Subscribers (row 40, 41)
  • ARPU (row 59, 60)
  • Churn (row 51, 52)

You can download the work file here in Excel format (see the red Wireless Segment tab).

Prepaid Subscribers

All you need is ONE reasonable assumption, the number of Reseller subscriber in 4Q 2008 to get to the estimated prepaid subscriber count.  Fortunately, we can make one fairly easily since most of their reseller subscribers come from the Tracfone, the largest MVNO in the US.  As of 3Q 2008, Tracfone reported 10.449M subs.  If in 4Q 2008, Tracfone added the same number of subs in as in 4Q 2007, then 10.499M + 711k  = 11.16M (see cell I41).  AT&T has 77M total subs, 60M postpaid subs, and 11.16M reseller subs (est).  So AT&T prepaid subscriber count is 77M - 60M - 11.16M = 5.7M.  We will use this estimate for the rest of the calculation.

Prepaid/Reseller Churn

To estimate the churn, you first calculate the number of disconnects for total subscribers and postpaid subscribers using the reported churn rate (see row 53-55).  As you can see, it looks like the disconnects for Prepaid + Reseller segement would have to be 1.479M for AT&T to have a consolidated total churn of 1.6%.  Hence, the Prepaid + Reseller churn is about 3.1%.  [Gut check: Tracfone's last reported churn rate was 3.6% in 4Q 2007 and 3.8% in 3Q 2008.]  If AT&T’s composite Prepaid + Reseller churn is 3.1% and the Reseller churn (Tracfone’s churn) is ~3.8%, the true AT&T Prepaid churn rate is likely lower than 3%.  This would be quite good for US Prepaid providers.

Prepaid + Reseller ARPU

Estimating ARPU can be done in a similar fashion.   The only thing you need to do is read the Investor Briefing (the pdf file they released).  It states that the Postpaid ARPU was $59.59 in 4Q 2008.  With that plus the total service revenue, you can back out the postpaid only service revenue which you can use to calculate the remainder of the service revenue for the prepaid and reseller segments.  The Prepaid + Reseller service revenue was 955M so using the Prepaid + Reseller subscriber count for 3Q and 4Q we calculated earlier, you can estimate the ARPU.  It turns out the Prepaid + Reseller ARPU was about $19.27.  The true Prepaid-only ARPU for AT&T is likely to be much higher.  Tracfone (reseller) reports ARPU of $11 in 3Q 2008.  Don’t forget that this is at the retail level.  As a wholesaler (AT&T in this case), the ARPU AT&T takes is likely in the $4-6 range depending on the price of the wholesale minute which can range from $0.03-0.08 per minute based on a Tracfone average of 78 MOU (minutes of use).

I hope this has been helpful in estimating AT&T’s prepaid KPIs .  All of these estimates are done using assumptions and should be use for “back-of-the-envelope” calculations only.

Clearwire will launch at least eight markets in 2009

March 5th, 2009 by admin | 0

During its fourth quarter 2008 earnings call today, Clearwire CEO Ben Wolff remained guarded about the exact number of markets the WiMAX provider will launch this year, but rattled off a list of at least eight markets where he said he expects the Clear-branded service will make its debut. Those markets include Las Vegas, Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia and Dallas/Ft. Worth. In addition, the company will convert existing pre-WiMAX markets in Seattle, Honolulu and Charlotte to mobile WiMAX and expand the coverage area in Baltimore, which is a Sprint Xohm market that will be converted to Clear.  

The company also reported consolidated revenue of $20.5 million. Average revenue per user was up 10 percent to $39.70, up from $36.09 in fourth quarter of 2007.  The number of VoIP customers also doubled from 10 percent in in the year-ago quarter to 20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. The company added 5,000 net new subscribers for a total subscriber base of 475,000.  Churn was 2.8 percent, up from 2.4 percent in the prior year’s quarter.

Here’s a breakdown of the other key points from the announcement:

Markets: By the end of 2010, Wolff said that the Clearwire network will cover 120 million covered POPs and that will include markets such as New York, Boston, Washington, D.C., Houston and San Francisco.  However, he also added that the company does not need to expand to 100 markets for it to succeed. Nationwide roaming is not a requirement for success, he said, adding that the company will launch a dual-mode WiMAX/CDMA 1xEVDO modem this summer that will let customers roam on Sprint’s 3G network when out of the Clearwire service area. 

Devices: Wolff talked about a “personal” hotspot device that will launch at the end of the month that will combine WiMAX and WiFi and he said that there will be at least 100 mobile WiMAX devices–including laptops, netbooks, handhelds and USB modems available to customers by year-end.  

MSOs and other resellers: Expect the cable companies and Sprint to begin selling WiMAX services in the second half of the year. Both are collaborating with Clearwire on product development.

Backhaul: The company says that 70 percent of the Las Vegas and Atlanta markets will use microwave technology for backhaul because it is much cheaper than using terrestrial backhaul.

Cash: Wolff says the company is managing and conserving its cash so it can go until 2011 without additional funding. The company expects to spend between $1.5 billion and $1.9 billion this year.

For more:
- See this press release

Related articles:
Clearwire
investors gain larger stake in company
The pros and cons of Clearwire
New Clearwire announces ‘Clear’ brand
Intel: Clearwire has sufficient capital

See source article.

Virgin Mobile reports $4.4M Q4 loss, but boosts revenue

March 3rd, 2009 by admin | 0

Virgin Mobile USA reported a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2008 of $4.4 million, compared to a net loss of $14.7 million in the year-ago quarter. However, the prepaid MVNO had a positive net income of $7.9 million for the full year, compared to $4.2 million for 2007, and increased its subscriber base for the year by 6 percent. 

Revenue: Virgin Mobile had a net service revenue of $326.7 million in the quarter, a 10 percent increase compared to the year-ago quarter. For all of 2008, Virgin Mobile’s net service revenue was $1.2 billion, consistent with net service revenue in 2007.

Subscriber additions: The carrier had 216,000 net additions in the quarter, up 3 percent from the year-ago period. Virgin also reported that it ended 2008 with 5.38 million total subscribers, compared to 5.1 million at the end of 2007. The company said it had more than 3.3 million gross additions during the year.

Churn: The carrier said churn for the fourth quarter was 4.8 percent, down from 5.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008 and 5.1 percent in the year-ago period.

ARPU:
Virgin Mobile reported ARPU of $21.14, a 4 percent increase from $20.36 in the year-ago quarter and a 3 percent bump from the third quarter of 2008. ARPU for the full year was $20.30, a 4 percent decline compared to $21.24 in 2007. The company said ARPU in the fourth quarter benefited from the launch of its revised hybrid plans in the second quarter of 2008.

For more:
- see this release

Related Articles:
Virgin Mobile USA
cuts 10 percent of workforce
Virgin Mobile
launch of Helio Ocean 2 imminent
Virgin Mobile
USA has 216K net adds in Q4
Virgin Mobile USA Q3 earnings beat expectations

See source article.

Sprint forecasts 6 percent drop in revenue

March 2nd, 2009 by admin | 0

Sprint Nextel, after hemorrhaging subscribers throughout 2008, is predicting a 6 percent drop in wireless service revenue in 2009.

The carrier, which lost 1.3 million total customers in the fourth quarter of 2008, is also predicting that if subscriber losses continue at the same pace as last year, the company will see an additional 5 percent drop in wireless revenue. The forecasts were made in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that Sprint made this past Friday.

Sprint lost 5.1 million subscribers in 2008, and wireless revenue fell by 3.1 billion, or 32 percent, as compared to 2007. When the carrier reported its fourth quarter earnings Feb. 19, revenue fell to $35.64 billion, down 11.2 percent from revenue of $40.15 billion in the year-ago quarter.   

The carrier said in January that it was laying off 8,000 employees in an effort to cut costs and save $1.2 billion annually. Sprint has also tried other efforts to retain customers, including offering wireless plans with perks for loyal customers and a new series of flat-rate, unlimited plans for Nextel Direct Connect customers. 

For more:
- see this article

Related Articles:
Sprint Nextel loses 1.3M subs in fourth quarter
Sprint adds mobile broadband to Simply Everything plan
Sprint launches flat-rate Nextel Direct Connect plans
Sprint Nextel to cut 8,000 jobs
Sprint offers voluntary package to employees
Sprint
loses 1.3M net subs, base drops to 50.5M

See source article.

RIM projects lower profits, margins despite subscriber growth

February 11th, 2009 by admin | 0

Research In Motion projected margins and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter at the low end of its previously announced forecast despite predicting stronger subscriber growth.

The BlackBerry maker said it expected revenue for the quarter, which ends Feb. 28, to come in around the midpoint of the previously predicted range, with gross margin and earnings at the low end. In December, RIM projected revenue between $3.3 billion and $3.5 billion and margins of 40 to 41 percent.

RIM also said it expected BlackBerry subscribers to grow to 2.9 million, up from 2.6 million in its fiscal third quarter, on the strength of continued growth after the holiday shopping season. However, the lower margins and earnings could forebode a drop in sales of some of RIM’s newer, more high-end smartphones such as the Storm and the Bold and an increase in demand for older and less expensive models. The company said it expected “more normalized” growth in the fiscal first quarter.   

“RIM achieved a very strong start to the holiday buying season and the momentum carried on stronger than expected during the past seven weeks, despite a seasonally slower time frame and the challenging economic environment,” said co-CEO Jim Balsillie.

Despite the growth in market share for the company, RIM has faced growing competition from Apple’s iPhone 3G, and may face more competition from a renewed Palm if its Pre smartphone proves to be a hit.

For more:
- see this article (sub. req.)

Related Articles:
RIM
posts higher revenue, adds 2.6M new BlackBerry accounts
RIM
, LG cut outlook and sales growth
RIM’s
long-term outlook may be risky
RIM’s
publicity is priceless; Will it weather the Storm?
Apple passed RIM in smartphone market in Q3

See source article.

Verizon CFO to retire by mid-year

February 6th, 2009 by admin | 0

Verizon Communications said that CFO Doreen Toben would retire from the company in mid-2009, capping a seven year career with the company and more than 25 years in the telecom industry. Verizon said a successor would be named shortly.

Toben, 59, also an executive vice president at the company, has been CFO since 2002, and has been involved in almost all of the company’s key strategic decisions. 

“I have had the good fortune of working with what I consider to be the best financial team in business today, as well as Verizon’s superb senior leadership,” Toben said in a release. “I feel very good about how this company has transformed itself in a few short years to become the industry’s premier provider of network-based communications services.”

Toben played a key role in the series of mergers in the mid-1990’s that created Verizon. She was vice president and controller for Bell Atlantic in July 2000, when the company merged with GTE to form Verizon. She was also CFO of Bell Atlantic’s telecom operations, and had been vice president of finance and controller when Bell Atlantic merged with NYNEX in August 1997. Toben began her career in 1983 at AT&T in the treasury department.

Verizon Communications, which jointly owns Verizon Wireless along with Vodafone, reported fourth quarter earnings last week. While Verizon Wireless showed strong revenue growth, the company’s wireline businesses, Verizon Telecom and Verizon Business, had year-over-year revenue declines. Verizon Wireless, following its $28.1 billion acquisition of Alltel, is now the nation’s largest wireless operator, with over 80 million subscribers.

For more:
- see this article
- see this release

Related Articles:
AT&T bidding for Verizon’s divested assets
Verizon Wireless has 1.4M net adds in Q4
Verizon Wireless adds 2.1M subs in 3Q
Verizon adds 1.5M net customers in 2Q
Verizon Wireless adds 1.5M customers

See source article.

Our POV: Verizon and others losing market shares to AT&T

February 3rd, 2009 by david | 0

The recent 4Q 2008 earnings simply reinforced the facts.  Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint are not losing market share to AT&T.

Take a look at their respective net adds (show below).  Clearly, no one expected net adds will grow in a saturating mobile market.  As can be seen in the yearly numbers, net adds across the carriers dropped YOY.   But AT&T dropped the least among the three here.

4q2008-report-card1

What is more impressive is when you look closer at the postpaid net adds.  AT&T increased the number of postpaid net adds from 4Q 2007 while Verizon and T-Mobile dropped significantly.  The effect of adding more new subs into your base also helps reduce churn which can be seen at AT&T while again Verizon and T-Mobile showed higher churn than the previous year.

If this continues and Verizon is not able to introduce new devices that will slow the iPhone love affair, I might want to entice consumers with more attractive offers on their rate plans.  They are currently the most expensive among the four national carriers (given others offer bonuses like 7pm nights, rollovers, etc.).

Our POV: Are iPhone subs too costly for AT&T?

February 3rd, 2009 by david | 0

Some have criticized AT&T’s increase in acquisition cost in 2008 especially when it picked up fewer net subscribers for dollars spent than it did in 2007.  However, 2007 was the year when it acquired massive number of low quality subscribers from prepaid.  With higher churn, lower ARPU, and intense competition, these prepaid subscribers can have a lifetime value 3-5x lower than an average postpaid subscriber.

Let’s look at the numbers more closely…..

AT&T spent $13B in 2007 for Selling, General, and Administrative expense vs. $14B.  So roughly the same.  However, in 2007 it picked up roughly 5.3M net additional subscribers while only 4.7M in 2008.  But of the 5.3M in 2007, one out of four were prepaid subscribers whereas in 2008 nearly all net adds were postpaid.

Not only were they postpaid subscribers, they were mostly iPhone postpaid subscribers that have a reportedly 1.6x ARPU than the average postpaid subscriber.  Extracting the numbers from the Investor Briefing, more than 50% of all postpaid gross adds where iPhones (1.9M out of the 3.5M total in postpaid) coupled with 60% of the net adds being smartphone subscribers……I would say the increase in acquisition cost was money well spent.  (I don’t buy the lower churn rate of iPhone subs yet since these subs have not been around long enough.)

But don’t iPhone subs cost more to acquire and it is hurting AT&T’s CPGA and bottom line as can be seen in the recent earnings??

Not true.  Despite the heavy acquisition cost for a iPhone sub as can be seen by the earnings shortfall at AT&T, in the long run, the residual value from higher iPhone ARPU and lower churn should justify the investment.  Assume that the iPhone is subsidized an additional $200 in CPGA. If ARPU was truly 1.6x higher than average postpaid ARPU, $60x.6 = $36.  $36 x 40% margin = $14.40 in additional gross contribution per month.  Hence, the breakeven point for the additional $200 in CPGA is a little more than 1 year ($200/14.40 = 14 months). This seems well worth the investment given that the subs are under a 2-year contract.

NTT DoCoMo’s Earnings Take a Dive (TheStreet.com)

February 2nd, 2009 by admin | 0

A lackluster economy has decelerated subscriptions.

See source article.

Verizon Reports 1.37 Million Net Adds

January 27th, 2009 by admin | 0

Verizon Communications posted a 16 percent increase in net earnings for the fourth quarter.

See source article.
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